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2016-17 Early Delivery PROs mostly up in latest outlook

Winnipeg - G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery Pool and Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in March, projected returns for canola, soybeans, field peas and durum are higher, while wheat returns are $5 per tonne lower. Projected returns for wheat, canola and soybean Futures Choice remain unchanged.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay

            
Early Delivery Pool
Wheat 28-Apr 24-Mar
1 CWRS 14.5 279.00 284.00
1 CWRS 14.0 276.00 281.00
1 CWRS 13.5 273.00 278.00
1 CWRS 13.0 270.00 275.00
1 CWRS 12.5 265.00 270.00
1 CWRS 12.0 260.00 265.00
1 CWRS 11.5 255.00 260.00
2 CWRS 14.5 276.00 281.00
2 CWRS 14.0 273.00 278.00
2 CWRS 13.5 270.00 275.00
2 CWRS 13.0 267.00 272.00
2 CWRS 12.5 262.00 267.00
2 CWRS 12.0 257.00 262.00
2 CWRS 11.5 252.00 257.00
3 CWRS 13.0 256.00 261.00
3 CWRS 12.5 251.00 256.00
3 CWRS 12.0 246.00 251.00
3 CWRS 11.5 241.00 246.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 300.00 300.00
1 CWAD 12.5 298.00 297.00
1 CWAD 11.5 293.00 292.00
1 CWAD 290.00 288.00
2 CWAD 13.0 291.00 290.00
2 CWAD 12.5 288.00 287.00
2 CWAD 11.5 284.00 282.00
2 CWAD 280.00 278.00
3 CWAD 13.0 275.00 274.00
3 CWAD 11.5 271.00 270.00
3 CWAD 269.00 268.00

Canola
1 Canada 514.00 500.00

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 398.00 390.00

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 445.00 433.00

Futures Choice

Early Delivery Pool
28-Apr 24-Mar
Wheat Minneapolis March 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 14.00 14.00
1 CWRS 14.0 11.00 11.00
1 CWRS 13.5 8.00 8.00
1 CWRS 13.0 5.00 5.00
1 CWRS 12.5 0.00 0.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -5.00 -5.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -10.00 -10.00
2 CWRS 14.5 11.00 11.00
2 CWRS 14.0 8.00 8.00
2 CWRS 13.5 5.00 5.00
2 CWRS 13.0 2.00 2.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -3.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -8.00 -8.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -13.00 -13.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -9.00 -9.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -14.00 -14.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -19.00 -19.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -24.00 -24.00

Canola

ICE March 2017 Basis
1 Canada 20.00 20.00

Soybeans

Chicago March 2017 Basis
2 Canada Yellow -20.00 -20.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3's pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools
PROs for 2016-17 are based on the best information available today, with the 2016 production season just getting underway. Since last month, we’ve seen the Canadian dollar appreciate significantly from 75 cents US to 79.5 cents US, which has negatively impacted returns across the board.  Rains in Argentina during the soybean harvest helped trigger a sharp rally and strong bean values spilled over to canola as well.  Wheat PROs are down due to the currency strengthening more than wheat futures improved.  Overall, wheat remains in a heavy supply situation and wheat production potential is very promising. Winter wheat is progressing well in the U.S. and overseas, while spring wheat is enjoying generally very good moisture conditions for planting with the notable exception of much of Alberta. For durum, price improvements just offset the effect of the stronger Canadian dollar.

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2016-17 Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the March 2017 futures value they lock in plus $8 per tonne.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 79.5 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery Pool and Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool...
April 28, 2016 Read More

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