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2015-16 Winter PROs mixed in latest outlook

 

Winnipeg – G3 today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2015-16 Winter Pool and Futures Choice Winter Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in December, projected returns for wheat (including Futures Choice) are lower, while durum projected returns are higher. Canola (including Futures Choice) projected returns are lower.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Winter Pool
Wheat 28-Jan 17-Dec
1 CWRS 14.5 277.00 291.00
1 CWRS 14.0 274.00 287.00
1 CWRS 13.5 271.00 284.00
1 CWRS 13.0 268.00 280.00
1 CWRS 12.5 265.00 276.00
1 CWRS 12.0 262.00 273.00
1 CWRS 11.5 259.00 269.00
2 CWRS 14.5 274.00 289.00
2 CWRS 14.0 271.00 285.00
2 CWRS 13.5 268.00 281.00
2 CWRS 13.0 265.00 278.00
2 CWRS 12.5 262.00 274.00
2 CWRS 12.0 259.00 270.00
2 CWRS 11.5 256.00 267.00
3 CWRS 13.0 253.00 265.00
3 CWRS 12.5 251.00 263.00
3 CWRS 12.0 248.00 260.00
3 CWRS 11.5 246.00 258.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 339.00 333.00
1 CWAD 12.5 337.00 331.00
1 CWAD 11.5 334.00 327.00
1 CWAD 332.00 325.00
2 CWAD 13.0 329.00 319.00
2 CWAD 12.5 328.00 318.00
2 CWAD 11.5 325.00 314.00
2 CWAD 323.00 312.00
3 CWAD 13.0 309.00 299.00
3 CWAD 11.5 306.00 295.00
3 CWAD 304.00 294.00
4 CWAD 284.00 274.00

Canola
1 Canada 510.00 512.00

Futures Choice

Winter Pool
28-Jan 17-Dec
Wheat Minneapolis July 2016 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 15.00 24.00
1 CWRS 14.0 12.00 20.00
1 CWRS 13.5 9.00 17.00
1 CWRS 13.0 6.00 13.00
1 CWRS 12.5 3.00 9.00
1 CWRS 12.0 0.00 6.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -3.00 2.00
2 CWRS 14.5 12.00 22.00
2 CWRS 14.0 9.00 18.00
2 CWRS 13.5 6.00 14.00
2 CWRS 13.0 3.00 11.00
2 CWRS 12.5 0.00 7.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -3.00 3.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -6.00 0.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -9.00 -1.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -11.00 -4.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -14.00 -6.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -16.00 -9.00

Canola

ICE July 2016 Basis
1 Canola 23.00 25.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2015-16 pools

Wheat 
PRO values for the wheat Winter Pool are down this month as a result of weaker futures, fading export basis, higher-than-expected grade and protein delivered, and narrowing spreads. This year’s smaller crop and very aggressive pricing by Canadian grain companies at port are pressuring the Canadian export basis lower. Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the March 2016 contract through to the July 2016 contract are trading in the range of US$4.95 to US$5.05 per bushel, which is 20 cents lower compared to the December PRO release.

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2015-16 Futures Choice Winter Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 2 CWRS 14.0 in-store port position made up of the July 2016 futures value they lock in plus $9 per tonne.

Durum
PRO values for the durum Winter Pool are up slightly this month as a result of well-priced sales on the books and a slightly weaker Canadian dollar projection compared to the December PRO.Contracting for this pool is set to close in February. Given the sales on the books and generally fluid movement from country through to export position, including for producer car shipping, prompt delivery is available. This pool is likely to complete all activity in late June, with final returns tabulated in July and final payments projected to be paid in August.

Canola
PRO values for the canola Winter Pool are down slightly this month due to softness in basis levels.Futures have been moving around in a narrow range and are very nearly the same as at the last PRO release.The pool is currently contracting and has not begun sales or pricing activity.As with the other pools, movement and sales are very fluid this year, so there is opportunity for prompt delivery and very early completion of this year’s marketing.Again, this is expected to translate into final payment issuance in approximately August.

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2015-16 Futures Choice Winter Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 1 Canada Canola in-store port position made up of the July 2016 futures value they lock in plus $23 per tonne.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 71 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
G3 today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2015-16 Winter Pool and Futures Choice Winter Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in December, projected returns...
January 28, 2016 Read More

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