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August outlook for 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools, including Futures Choice Pools. Compared to the last PRO released in July, projected returns for wheat and durum are up slightly and field peas are down sharply. Canola returns are up slightly for the Early Delivery pool and down slightly for the Annual pool, while soybean projected returns are down from the July outlook. Projected returns for all Futures Choice pools are unchanged.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
Wheat 25-Aug 28-Jul 25-Aug 28-Jul
1 CWRS 14.5 266.00 264.00 267.00 266.00
1 CWRS 14.0 263.00 261.00 264.00 263.00
1 CWRS 13.5 260.00 258.00 261.00 260.00
1 CWRS 13.0 257.00 255.00 258.00 257.00
1 CWRS 12.5 252.00 250.00 253.00 252.00
1 CWRS 12.0 247.00 245.00 248.00 247.00
1 CWRS 11.5 242.00 240.00 243.00 242.00
2 CWRS 14.5 263.00 261.00 264.00 263.00
2 CWRS 14.0 260.00 258.00 261.00 260.00
2 CWRS 13.5 257.00 255.00 258.00 257.00
2 CWRS 13.0 254.00 252.00 255.00 254.00
2 CWRS 12.5 249.00 247.00 250.00 249.00
2 CWRS 12.0 244.00 242.00 245.00 244.00
2 CWRS 11.5 239.00 237.00 240.00 239.00
3 CWRS 13.0 243.00 241.00 244.00 243.00
3 CWRS 12.5 238.00 236.00 239.00 238.00
3 CWRS 12.0 233.00 231.00 234.00 233.00
3 CWRS 11.5 228.00 226.00 229.00 228.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 302.00 297.00 296.00 291.00
1 CWAD 12.5 300.00 295.00 294.00 289.00
1 CWAD 11.5 295.00 290.00 289.00 284.00
1 CWAD 292.00 287.00 286.00 281.00
2 CWAD 13.0 293.00 288.00 287.00 282.00
2 CWAD 12.5 290.00 285.00 284.00 279.00
2 CWAD 11.5 286.00 281.00 280.00 275.00
2 CWAD 282.00 277.00 276.00 271.00
3 CWAD 13.0 277.00 272.00 271.00 266.00
3 CWAD 11.5 276.00 271.00 270.00 265.00
3 CWAD 271.00 266.00 265.00 260.00

Canola
1 Canada 474.00 473.00 476.00 478.00

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 290.00 334.00 288.00 330.00

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 451.00 460.00

Futures Choice
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
25-Aug 28-Jul 25-Aug 28-Jul
Wheat Minneapolis March 2017 Basis Minneapolis July 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 14.00 14.00 9.00 9.00
1 CWRS 14.0 11.00 11.00 6.00 6.00
1 CWRS 13.5 8.00 8.00 3.00 3.00
1 CWRS 13.0 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00
1 CWRS 12.5 0.00 0.00 -6.00 -6.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -5.00 -5.00 -11.00 -11.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -10.00 -10.00 -16.00 -16.00
2 CWRS 14.5 11.00 11.00 6.00 6.00
2 CWRS 14.0 8.00 8.00 3.00 3.00
2 CWRS 13.5 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00
2 CWRS 13.0 2.00 2.00 -3.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -3.00 -3.00 -9.00 -9.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -8.00 -8.00 -14.00 -14.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -13.00 -13.00 -19.00 -19.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -9.00 -9.00 -14.00 -14.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -14.00 -14.00 -20.00 -20.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -19.00 -19.00 -25.00 -25.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -24.00 -24.00 -30.00 -30.00

Canola
ICE March 2017 Basis ICE July 2017 Basis
1 Canada 15.00 15.00 13.00 13.00

Soybeans
Chicago March 2017 Basis
2 Canada Yellow -16.00 -16.00

 

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools


PROs for 2016-17 are based on current information as the 2016 harvest is getting underway across the Prairies.  Since the last PRO, excellent wheat yields are being confirmed across the U.S. region. As the spring-seeded crops enter harvest, the expectation is generally for high yields across the Prairies. The focus is now on harvest weather and crop quality results. Futures markets have generally trended sideways over the past month, with the bearish reports of better-than-expected yields being offset with concerns around the potential for less-than-ideal harvest weather conditions.

Wheat  pool returns are up $1 to $2 per tonne, durum returns are up $5 per tonne, canola returns are up $1 for the Early Delivery pool and down $2 for the Annual pool, field peas are down $42 to $44 per tonne while soybeans are down $9 per tonne.   

Durum pool returns have settled a little higher as the focus has shifted to harvest weather and quality now that the growing season is winding down, with good yields expected across the North American durum region.

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 wheat Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the March 2017 futures value they lock in plus $8 per tonne. For the wheat Futures Choice Annual Pool, the projection for 1 CWRS 13.5 is the July 2017 futures plus $3 per tonne. 

For the canola Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in plus $15 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool and the July 2017 futures plus $13 per tonne for the Futures Choice Annual Pool at in-store position. 

For the soybean Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in less $16 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool at in-store position. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 77 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools, including Futures Choice Pools. Compared to the last PRO released in July, projected returns for wheat and durum are up slightly and field peas are down sharply. Canola returns are up slightly for the Early Delivery pool and down slightly for the Annual pool...
August 25, 2016 Read More

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