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G3 announces latest PROs for 2016-17 pools, including the 2016-17 Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools and Futures Choice Pools. Compared to the last PRO released in April, projected returns for the Early Delivery Pool are higher for all crops. Projected returns for Futures Choice Early Delivery pools are unchanged for wheat, but lower for canola and soybeans.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
Wheat 26-May 28-Apr 26-May 28-Apr
1 CWRS 14.5 284.00 279.00 281.00 ----
1 CWRS 14.0 281.00 276.00 278.00 ----
1 CWRS 13.5 278.00 273.00 275.00 ----
1 CWRS 13.0 275.00 270.00 272.00 ----
1 CWRS 12.5 270.00 265.00 267.00 ----
1 CWRS 12.0 265.00 260.00 262.00 ----
1 CWRS 11.5 260.00 255.00 257.00 ----
2 CWRS 14.5 281.00 276.00 278.00 ----
2 CWRS 14.0 278.00 273.00 275.00 ----
2 CWRS 13.5 275.00 270.00 272.00 ----
2 CWRS 13.0 272.00 267.00 269.00 ----
2 CWRS 12.5 267.00 262.00 264.00 ----
2 CWRS 12.0 262.00 257.00 259.00 ----
2 CWRS 11.5 257.00 252.00 254.00 ----
3 CWRS 13.0 261.00 256.00 258.00 ----
3 CWRS 12.5 256.00 251.00 253.00 ----
3 CWRS 12.0 251.00 246.00 248.00 ----
3 CWRS 11.5 246.00 241.00 243.00 ----

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 305.00 300.00 301.00 ----
1 CWAD 12.5 303.00 298.00 299.00 ----
1 CWAD 11.5 298.00 293.00 294.00 ----
1 CWAD 295.00 290.00 291.00 ----
2 CWAD 13.0 296.00 291.00 292.00 ----
2 CWAD 12.5 293.00 288.00 289.00 ----
2 CWAD 11.5 289.00 284.00 285.00 ----
2 CWAD 285.00 280.00 281.00 ----
3 CWAD 13.0 280.00 275.00 276.00 ----
3 CWAD 11.5 279.00 271.00 275.00 ----
3 CWAD 274.00 269.00 270.00 ----

Canola
1 Canada 535.00 514.00 535.00 ----

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 405.00 398.00 405.00 ----

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 475.00 445.00

Futures Choice

Early Delivery Pool

Annual Pool
26-May 28-Apr 26-May 28-Apr

Wheat

Minneapolis March
2017 Basis

Minneapolis July
2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 14.00 14.00 9.00 ----
1 CWRS 14.0 11.00 11.00 6.00 ----
1 CWRS 13.5 8.00 8.00 3.00 ----
1 CWRS 13.0 5.00 5.00 0.00 ----
1 CWRS 12.5 0.00 0.00 -6.00 ----
1 CWRS 12.0 -5.00 -5.00 -11.00 ----
1 CWRS 11.5 -10.00 -10.00 -16.00 ----
2 CWRS 14.5 11.00 11.00 6.00 ----
2 CWRS 14.0 8.00 8.00 3.00 ----
2 CWRS 13.5 5.00 5.00 0.00 ----
2 CWRS 13.0 2.00 2.00 -3.00 ----
2 CWRS 12.5 -3.00 -3.00 -9.00 ----
2 CWRS 12.0 -8.00 -8.00 -14.00 ----
2 CWRS 11.5 -13.00 -13.00 -19.00 ----
3 CWRS 13.0 -9.00 -9.00 -14.00 ----
3 CWRS 12.5 -14.00 -14.00 -20.00 ----
3 CWRS 12.0 -19.00 -19.00 -25.00 ----
3 CWRS 11.5 -24.00 -24.00 -30.00 ----

Canola

ICE March
2017 Basis

ICE July
2017 Basis
1 Canada 14.00 20.00 12.00 ----

Soybeans

Chicago March
2017 Basis
 
2 Canada Yellow -25.00 -20.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools
PROs for 2016-17 are based on the best information available today, with the 2016 production season in the early stages. At this point, planting is approaching completion and moisture conditions are better than average overall. Since late April, the Canadian dollar has retraced its steps back from 79.5 cents US to 77 cents US, which is positive for Canadian dollar-denominated returns. The rally in soybean and canola values continued to reach higher levels on the back of strong demand combined with reduced production in Argentina. Wheat PROs have increased thanks to both stronger futures and a weaker Canadian dollar. However, the supply and demand fundamentals on wheat remain heavy with abundant supply meeting flat demand. The prospects for 2016 production have improved since last month with seeding nearing completion in North America and moisture conditions also improving. Durum pool returns have likewise benefitted from the softer Canadian dollar compared to April, while the overall supply and demand picture looks about the same as last month.

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position of the March 2017 futures value they lock in plus $8 per tonne. For the Futures Choice Annual Pool, the projection for 1 CWRS 13.5 is the July 2017 futures plus $3 per tonne. 

For the canola Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in plus $14 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool and the July 2017 futures plus $12 per tonne for the Futures Choice Annual Pool at in-store position. 

For the soybean Futures Choice Pool, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in less $25 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool at in-store position. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 77 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools and Futures Choice Pools...
May 26, 2016 Read More

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